美联储最终降息. 这对你的财务状况意味着什么?
9月18日, 2024, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the benchmark federal funds rate one-half percentage point to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%. It was the first rate cut since the Fed raised the funds rate aggressively from March 2022 to July 2023 to help control inflation.1
The long-awaited policy shift suggests that a soft landing — the rare feat of bringing down inflation without causing a recession — is in sight. 这也标志着美国经济正处于一个关键时刻, 这对消费者来说意义重大, 企业, 和投资者.
为什么是现在?
The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate to foster maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American public. For a couple of years rising prices have been considered the more serious threat, 但通货膨胀率已经接近美联储的2%.0%的目标.
官员们现在认为这两种风险“大致处于平衡状态”.在会后的新闻发布会上, 美联储主席鲍威尔说, “The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state, inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to an estimated 2.截至8月份，增长了2%.”2
In recent months, job gains have slowed considerably, and unemployment climbed from 3.3月至4日为8%.8月份2%. Powell maintained that employment data remains at solid levels, 但最近的变化表明，下行风险有所增加.3–4
“你.S. 经济状况良好. 我们今天的决定是为了让它保持下去.”
——美联储主席鲍威尔
对借款人的救济
Lowering the federal funds rate helps to reduce borrowing costs across the board, creating breathing room in the budgets of many households and 企业.
最优惠利率, 哪些商业银行向他们最好的客户收费, 通常与联邦基金利率一起变动. 尽管实际利率可能相差很大, 小企业贷款, 可调利率抵押贷款, 房屋净值信贷额度, 汽车贷款, 信用卡, and other forms of consumer credit are often linked to the prime rate, so the rates on these types of loans should adjust lower relatively soon after a Fed rate cut.
有房屋净值信用额度的借款人, 可调利率抵押贷款, 信用卡余额, or other outstanding loans with variable interest rates should see their monthly payments fall as well, 在许多情况下，在几个计费周期内.
Mortgage rates are influenced by a mix of complex factors that includes Fed policies, 长期通胀预期, 以及政府债券市场的动态. 30年期固定抵押贷款利率, 它们倾向于追踪10年期美国国债的收益率, fell steeply in August after government reports confirmed that inflation and the job market were cooling.5
30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率是6%.9月19日为09%，为19个月来最低. 这比最近的峰值7有所下降.5月初22%. Aspiring home buyers have gained significant purchasing power since last spring and mortgage rates may continue to fall gradually, but it’s also possible that much of the anticipated decline in interest rates has already been priced in.6
手头现金太多?
Savers have enjoyed being rewarded for holding cash in high-yield savings accounts and short-term certificates of deposits (CDs). 尽管这可能不会在一夜之间发生, they should be prepared for the yields on these accounts to follow the Fed funds rate downward.
Investors who have more cash savings than they expect to need in the next couple of years might consider locking into today’s relatively high yields by shifting money into CDs or bonds with fixed interest rates and longer terms. 例如, someone could purchase bonds that mature when the money is likely to be needed for retirement expenses or to pay for a child’s college education.
将更多资金投入股市, which have historically generated higher average returns over time, is a riskier option that may be appropriate for investors who intend to hang on to them for the long haul, 但前提是它们能够承受频繁的价格波动.
在经济强劲的情况下降息
Past rate-cutting cycles have aimed to boost growth when the economy was in trouble, 这一次似乎不是这种情况. 鲍威尔明确表示：“美国将继续努力.S. 经济状况良好. 我们今天的决定是为了让它保持下去.”7
在2024年第二季度，美国的经济增长.S. 国内生产总值（GDP）以健康的速度增长.0%年利率, and recent forecasts based on the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicate that the economy grew at a similar pace in the third quarter.8–9
The September rate cut — which officials hope will keep job market conditions from worsening — is presumably a starting point. The Fed plans to keep cutting interest rates until they reach a neutral stance that should no longer impact the economy for better or worse. According to current FOMC projections, the fed funds rate could drop an additional 0.到2024年底占50%，再占1%.2025年以上0%.10
It can take time for borrowing rates to respond to changes in the fed funds rate and noticeably impact the decisions of consumers and 企业. This “lag” in the effects of monetary policy is one reason that some people fear the economy is not out of the woods.
无论接下来发生什么, the Committee intends to make policy decisions “meeting by meeting based on the incoming data, 不断变化的前景, 以及风险平衡.”11
FDIC为存单和银行储蓄账户提供保险, 它们通常提供固定的回报率, 最高250美元,每位存款人000美元, 每个受保机构. The return and principal value of an 投资 in bonds or stocks fluctuate with changes in market conditions and, 当销售, these securities may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investments seeking to achieve higher yields also involve a higher degree of risk. Forecasts are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass.